AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Keeps bounce off 200-DMA, monthly support on strong Australia Retail Sales

  • AUD/JPY snaps four-day downtrend, extends recovery from 13-day low.
  • Australia Retail Sales rallied in November, Trade Balance eased but Imports and Exports improved.
  • 200-DMA, one-month-old support line restricts short-term downside.
  • Buyers eye 61.8% Fibonacci retracement but further upside appears elusive.

AUD/JPY remains on the front foot while extending the bounce off a two-week low towards 83.00, up 0.22% intraday, during Tuesday’s Asian session.

The pair recently took clues from Australia’s key data points for stretching the first positive daily performance in five.

Australia’s Retail Sales rose past 3.9% forecasts and 4.9% prior to 7.3% MoM whereas the Trade Balance eased to 9423M versus 10600M expected and 11220M previous readouts, per the latest readings for December. Details suggest that the Exports and Imports both increased from -3.0% respective prior for each to 2.0% and 6.0% in that order.

In addition to the Aussie economics, the 200-DMA and an upward sloping trend line from early December also favor the AUD/JPY buyers to poke the 83.00 threshold by the press time.

Moving on, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October-December downside, around 83.40, will lure the bulls but a five-week-old horizontal area near 84.15-30 will challenge the pair’s further upside.

Should the quote rises past 84.30, the late October’s swing low near 84.60 will act as an additional upside filter during the run-up to the year 2021 peak of 86.25.

Alternatively, the 200-DMA and stated support line, respectively around 82.65 and 82.50, limit the AUD/JPY pair’s short-term downside before directing the bears to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 81.63.

AUD/JPY: daily chart

Trend: Further advances likely