A Lucrative Twitter Trade Helps My 29-Stock $354k Portfolio Top The S&P 500 For April And All Of 2022

zakokor/iStock via Getty Images

It is my firm belief that 80% of money managers can’t outperform the S&P 500 index over time due primarily to the fees they charge their clients. Each and every individual person intent on having the happiest retirement possible could and should take charge of their retirement portfolios and invest in simple index/mutual funds and/or a balanced portfolio like the one I have set up to maximize returns over decades of performance. My ratios and distributions are based on my book – Investing Better Than A Money Manager: The Rise Of Retail Investing.

Past Performance

Here is briefly how my portfolio evolved from its inception when I became more of an active investor in 2014 in the market until now. Notice, I spent several years before 2014 putting some funds into the market now and then at random as I finished school and got married and started a family etc., which I didn’t really follow or record.

Year Welsh Portfolio S&P 500
2014 $77,053
2015 $81,233 -0.81%
2016 $91,494 9.64%
2017 $142,363 19.38%
2018 $162,607 -6.29%
2019 $230,093 29.01%
2020 $316,104 16.28%
2021 $402,037 27.04%

Contributions

Contributions make up a vital component of your portfolio, especially when you are starting out, as they are the building blocks of tax advantaged savings for retirement. The more money you have, the more concern you should have with taxes. This is why when you start out investing, you should try to add to accounts like IRAs ASAP instead of putting the money into regular taxable investment accounts.

Contributions

HSA

IRAs

401K

Jan 2022

$0

$0

$0

Feb 2022

$0

$0

$500

Mar 2022

$0

$0

$3,760.44

Apr 2022

$0

$0

$500

YTD CONTRIBUTIONS

$0

$0

$4,760.44

Here is how my portfolio is performing compared to the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) over the beginning of 2022.

Data by YCharts

Fund

SPY

Welsh

Welsh Minus Contributions

% Gain Jan 2022

-5.32%

-8.12%

-8.12%

% Gain Feb 2022

-3.62%

-0.88%

-10.15%

% Gain Mar 2022

3.59%

3.3%

2.3%

% Gain Apr 2022

-9.03

-6.2%

-6.4%

YTD GAINS

-13.26%

-11.8%

-13%

Regular contributions to your retirement portfolio help your portfolio to grow even during less than ideal months where you fail to outperform the S&P 500. Not every month will be a winner, but regular contributions can help make anyone’s performance look great over time.

My portfolio is divided up to start 2022 at around 73% stocks and around 27% mutual and index funds with the goal to increase stocks to over 80% of my portfolio over time. Due to the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, I have sold off a bunch of my international stocks for now as domestic is the safest place to play while things play out globally at this time. My current setup has swayed to 96% domestic exposure and 4% international. I have about 2.5% of my portfolio in bond mutual funds so that I know how they work and to have at least a little exposure to this sector over time. I plan to have bonds be a very small portion of my portfolio up to right around age 65. Diversification lifts my whole portfolio’s returns over time, so finding the best stocks in every sector is a goal for me each and every year. Here are some of the main changes since my last portfolio article in March of 2022.

Welsh Portfolio

Stocks

Index/Mutual Funds

Bonds

Domestic

International

Jan 2022

73%

27%

2.6%

82%

18%

Feb 2022

74%

26%

2.6%

93%

7%

Mar 2022

74%

26%

2.4%

94%

6%

Apr 2022

75%

25%

2.5%

96%

4%

Here are the details of my personal ~$354K portfolio then, based on values of approximately $40K, $400K, and $4 million broken down by sectors with brief descriptions of each stock in each sector. The best thing about my portfolio setup is that it is scalable so that people interested in following a similar path can set up their portfolios to follow my path no matter how small or large their holdings are. With fee-free trading and the advent of fractional shares, investors are more capable than ever in setting up amazing portfolios even when starting from scratch.

The Welsh Portfolio

Trade of the Month: Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)

Welcome to a brand new section to my monthly article featuring my biggest trade of the month. This month was a phenomenal trade for me which helped put me over my benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust for 2022. This is quite an accomplishment for fund managers, as I believe 80% of them can’t beat a benchmark like this when you include their fees, etc. This also means that I’m currently outperforming the top 500 companies in the U.S. for 2022 in stock returns.

I bought into Twitter in mid-April as Musk started making moves and hints towards a Twitter acquisition.

My official Twitter account time stamping trade details (Twitter)

The Twitter acquisition happened pretty fast with Elon’s financing coming in and the board of directors pretty much between a rock and a hard place as they could round up no additional buyers to top Musk’s $54.20 a share offer especially with the market as a whole tanking.

My official Twitter account time stamping trade details (Twitter)

I sold all of my Twitter stock on April 25th for $52.20 a share for a return of over $8,000 for around a one week time frame. This single trade helped me beat the S&P 500 performance in April by over 2.5% and made up the deficit between my performance and the benchmarks for all of 2022. April was a very difficult month for almost all longs out there but it’s always nice to find a silver lining.

The Information Technology Sector

Aim = 8% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

QCOM

$880

$8,800

$88,000

DELL

$260

$2,600

$26,000

VMW

$250

$2,500

$25,000

AMD

$850

$8,500

$85,000

% Portfolio

8.5%

1. QUALCOMM (QCOM) is a major technology solutions provider for companies like Apple (AAPL) and will be an integral part of upcoming transformational secular revolutions like 5G. I always like to have at least one chip company in my portfolio at all times with a couple never a bad idea.

ACPS = $61.92

2. Dell (DELL) is a legacy holding which continues to aggressively seek M&A opportunities like the value acquisition of the $67B EMC deal and the spin-off of the hybrid cloud giant VMware (VMW) at the end of October 2021, which it formerly owned ~80% of the stock of. Michael Dell is a shareholder winner through and through, and following in his stock footpaths I think is a good long-term decision. The VMware spinoff should allow Dell to deleverage significantly while allowing it the free cash flow to hit its remaining debt burden opportunistically before Michael Dell moves on to his next future M&A opportunity.

ACPS = $21.52

3. VMware I acquired VMware as a spin-off from Dell. At this time, I’m undecided if I want to maintain both positions or have one position based either in Dell or switch from that legacy holding all into VMware. I will figure this out later in 2022 when I do my annual IRA contributions.

ACPS = $51.57

4. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) One of my new favorite stocks especially down around these price levels. I’m a big fan of their CEO Lisa Su, who has done a tremendous job the past couple of years eating Intel’s (INTC) lunch and embarrassing the former supergiant. I’m also a big fan of the recently completed acquisition of Xilinx which expands AMD’s reach and scope. When the time comes to sell a lot of my recently bought commodities focused stocks you can be sure I’ll be buying many more AMD shares especially sub $100 a share.

ACPS = $86.45

The Health Care Sector

Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

ARWR

$2,460

$24,600

$246,000

MDT

$410

$4,100

$41,000

PFE

$400

$4,000

$40,000

SMMT

$540

$5,400

$54,000

LLY

$430

$4,300

$43,000

% Portfolio

16%

5. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is a permanent large stock position in my portfolio as an RNAi juggernaut entering key Phase 2 and 3 trials in 2022. A lovely balance sheet with key partnerships with Janssen (JNJ), Amgen (AMGN), Takeda (TAK), Horizon (HZNP), and a new ~$1 Billion licensing deal in November of 2021 with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) significantly de-risk its TRiM platform as it continues to expand into additional cell types. Amgen continues to slowly progress Olpasiran (AMG 890), its collaboration candidate with Arrowhead along with a successful Janssen update in November 2021 on JNJ-3989 for hepatitis B virus. Takeda will help co-develop and co-commercialize Arrowhead’s lead candidate ARO-AAT preparing Arrowhead for independent commercialization of its wholly owned candidates while it continues to find partners for new candidates like the recently revealed ARO-XDH with Horizon. Arrowhead partnered with GlaxoSmithKline for its NASH candidate ARO-HSD, proving once again its TRiM platform is in big demand as it continues to expand its pipeline so fast that it can’t progress all of its candidates by itself as a smaller sub $10 billion company.

A setback in its ARO-ENaC candidate led to a tremendous buying opportunity in the stock in 2021 which is still in effect in my opinion. ARO-ENaC is neither the company’s lead product nor a very important one in Arrowhead’s ever growing pipeline of candidates. Investors should get an update on Arrowhead’s pulmonary plans when it hosts its upcoming Pulmonary R&D day on May 26, 2022.

I used the ARO-ENaC debacle to expand my shares of Arrowhead from 410 shares up to 530 shares. I expanded my shares in Arrowhead again in January of 2022 by buying an additional 70 shares bring my total up to 600 shares. Baby steps on this conviction stock for me as I continue to add shares as the company continues to sit around 52-week lows even as it successfully continues to expand and advance its marvelous pipeline.

ACPS = $48.16

6. Medtronic (MDT): Health care device maker that I think has significant upside from COVID-19 variants for years to come. Hospitals will need the best equipment companies like Medtronic provides as health issues from COVID-19 could and seem poised to persist for years.

ACPS = $83.13

7. Pfizer (PFE): A healthcare behemoth with a big stake in the fight against COVID-19. Seems like a great potential long-term winner at a great value compared to some of its peers.

ACPS = $35.86

8. Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) did a very suspicious move in August of 2021 by combining its two Phase 3 blinded pivotal trials for its ridinilazole candidate for clostridioides difficile into one study. This was doable as both studies were at ~ 50% enrollment but were apparently not enrolling fast enough for management’s liking. However, in September 2021, investors found out that this change in the study was not pre-approved by the FDA, so the trial results won’t be enough for the FDA moving forward.

On top of all this, Summit investors found out in late December of 2021 that the company’s data results for its ridinilazole candidate didn’t meet all of the hoped for primary endpoints, resulting in another deep drop in the company’s share price.

Did a massive stock buy in January of 2022 as it settled around $2.00 a share. Went from 850 shares up to 2,850 shares as I think the stocks upside is attractive now again. With its ability to raise cash on will with Rights Offerings backed by company Chairman and CEO billionaire Robert W. Duggan, with a 70+% ownership of the company, downside risk is markedly mitigated in my opinion. The postponement of the latest rights offering means something newsworthy could be coming in the future that was not compatible with a rights offering at this time.

I started to add shares of Summit again in April of 2022 as it headed south of $2 a share again along with the general continued malaise in the biotech sector.

ACPS = $3.23

9. Eli Lilly (LLY) Rebought a bigger position in Eli Lilly in April after selling my Biogen shares after its catalyst had passed. A forever stock for me that I sell from time to time with the full intent of always buying shares again in the near future. Love the Alzheimer’s upside for this stock in the coming years.

ACPS = $284

Sold: Biogen (BIIB) shares as its catalyst passed with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services CMS decision to limit coverage of Biogen’s Aduhelm for Alzheimer’s disease. Took a shot on a better decision but the limiting decision was expected so not much lost on taking the shot with the potential for a huge gain for me if CMS had decided to loosen their stance on the drug.

The Communication Services Sector

Aim = 10% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

DIS

$1,220

$12,200

$122,000

GOOGL

$680

$6,800

$68,000

RBLX

$910

$9,100

$91,000

% Portfolio

10.6%

10. Disney (DIS) will crush Netflix (NFLX) in growth over the coming decades in my opinion as its streaming platform continues to grow by leaps and bounds. It is getting pummeled currently along with other streaming names like Netflix as inflation is starting to show affects in markets such as these as winners and losers are starting to emerge as consumers pick and choose instead of owning everything. Definitely would like to buy more shares at these levels but have so many other wants and needs I doubt it will happen unless commodities go bonkers and I end up selling all of those positions.

ACPS = $171.78

11. Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG): One of the FAANG names producing amazing results as always. I have a decent amount of exposure to the FAANG names with my mutual funds, but it is hard to have too much of these juggernauts.

ACPS = $2,335.36

12. Roblox (RBLX) is a teen gaming platform that came public through a direct listing in March of 2021. My hope was that it did not come out of the gate as hot as earlier IPOs DoorDash (DASH) and Airbnb (ABNB), which were too expensive for investing in for me personally when they first premiered. I was very happy to get in at the IPO price of $64 a share when it premiered for a large holding in my portfolio. I always try to have an eye on what younger generations are loving and this platform is expanding and growing phenomenally. Also note that Facebook at the end of October 2021 announced that it is changing its name to Meta Platforms Inc. to embrace the future of the Metaverse that is central to what Roblox is. Give me one of the originators and pioneers in the space any day personally over Facebook and its social concerns. Willing to build my Roblox position over time as it could be a game changer if the Metaverse becomes as big as Facebook believes it will be.

Doubled my position in Roblox in January of 2022 as I dropped a lot of sector weight with my Apple stock sale. Expanding my exposure to the Metaverse is a no brainer for me as a believer in its potential over the coming decades. I will be expanding this position more especially at these prices.

Added even more shares of Roblox at the end of April of 2022 after selling my original shares for my early April Twitter play and rebuying my lost Roblox shares plus some after Twitter’s debacle passed.

ACPS = $32.36

Sold: Meta (FB) shares to fund a decent chunk of my Twitter buys in mid-April as it became clear Elon Musk was going to make a play on the company. Elon scored a quick victory and I sold my Twitter shares for a nice quick profit. However, I elected to expand my Roblox shares and purchase other stocks instead of buying back any Meta shares. I prefer the pure play option at this time especially at these dollar levels so going all in on Roblox and will have my Meta exposure through mutual funds at this time.

The Financial Sector

Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

GBTC

$3,560

$35,600

$356,000

HSBC

$240

$2,400

$24,000

% Portfolio

14.4%

13. Bitcoin (OTC:GBTC) (BTC-USD) is digital gold in my opinion and the future of finance as a potential bedfellow to or eventual replacement of not only the U.S. dollar, but to all fiat money in the coming decades. I plan on holding Bitcoin stock for the next 20+ years and to very rarely if ever sell shares, so month to month performance means little to me at this point. I plan on it being a long-term top 3 stock position in my portfolio at all times and would consider adding to my giant position if the coin drops below the $25K level as I just added more shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust stock in November of 2021.

ACPS = $31.46

14. HSBC Bank (HSBC) is a legacy holding that might finally see some upside if the United Kingdom can ever get Brexit resolved and new trade opportunities sorted out. That of course, might be a big if. Looks to be a stock on the chopping block when I do my IRA contributions for 2022.

ACPS = $48.91

The Consumer Discretionary Sector

Aim = 8% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

TSCO

$600

$6,000

$60,000

DKNG

$340

$3,400

$34,000

RIVN

$300

$3,000

$30,000

PTON

$430

$4,300

$43,000

TSLA

$520

$5,200

$52,000

% Portfolio

8.3%

15. Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) quietly continues to perform as one of the best companies in retail mostly immune to Amazon’s dominance. Its acquisition of Petsense makes a lot of sense now, especially with the explosive growth of everything pet in the wake of COVID-19.

ACPS = $79.76

16. DraftKings (DKNG) is a stock that has a bright future in my estimation as a leader in online gambling and sports betting. A difficult market with consolidation eventually needed means lots of headwinds such as promotional activity as each company tries to gobble up market share especially in newly legalized states. However, its massive drop from recent highs as a leader in the space led me to finally buy into the narrative as the stock at this price is just too cheap to ignore. Regular position to start with more to be added if possible in future months.

ACPS = $17.37

17. Rivian Automotive (RIVN) was my big purchase towards the end of 2021 as I had been waiting for this IPO throughout 2021. I tried to get in at around the IPO’s initial ~$80 offer price but was not able to get any shares then as it started out at about $115 a share. Being patient a couple days didn’t improve my odds much, so I decided to bite the bullet and buy shares at the higher price. Sometimes you have to pay more for what you want, but I got the position I wanted and am happy now to sit on it. Added a few more shares of Rivian in March and hopefully add a few more in the coming months as well at these prices to get my dollar cost average down.

Sold all my original Rivian shares to help fund my Twitter trade in April of 2022. Finished that trade and rebought a slightly bigger position in Rivian. That is why my ACPS dropped so dramatically as I got all new shares after taking a big loss on the original ones. Would like to add more shares over time but not happening soon unless I find a reason to sell a lot of my commodity stocks.

ACPS = $30.95

18. Peloton (PTON) is a new position I started after cashing out from my successful Twitter trade. With the extra funds I decided to start a brand new position in beaten down Peloton which is now trading at a massive discount to recent 52-week highs. What separates this stock from other beaten down stay-at-home plays is that it had recent buyout interest from such behemoths as Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). Think the stock has seen enough pain to maybe finally be stabilizing and love the upside if M&A rumors emerge again due to its low market valuation. Nice solid regular position for me.

ACPS = $19.24

19. Tesla (TSLA) is a brand new position again for me after selling the proceeds from my Twitter (TWTR) trade. It was originally not on my buy list but Elon Musk selling ~$8.4B of Tesla stock to help fund his upcoming purchase of Twitter allowed the high-flying Tesla stock to trade under $900 a share. After a phenomenal earnings report, I’m more than happy to buy back into Tesla’s story as I have made great money on it in the past and see good opportunity again here sub $900 a share. Will be looking to add additional shares here sooner rather than later if it stays under $900 a share.

ACPS = $894.70

The Consumer Staples Sector

Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

PG

$610

$6,100

$61,000

PEP

$550

$5,500

$55,000

GIS

$700

$7,000

$70,000

% Portfolio

7%

20. Procter & Gamble (PG) is a legacy holding that sports a decent growing dividend along with many best in class brands like Olay, Head & Shoulders, Dawn, and Charmin. Always nice to have some stalwarts for the upcoming recessions and depressions.

ACPS = $92.59

21. PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) is a phenomenal drink company with brands like Pepsi-Cola, Gatorade, and Tropicana along with amazing growth in the snack category with Frito-Lay that, in my mind, sets it apart from competitors like Coke (NYSE:KO).

ACPS = $106.77

22. General Mills (GIS) is a legacy holding for me with a great dividend that experienced a huge turnaround during COVID-19 with its brands, including its $8B acquisition of Blue Buffalo in 2018. Its former debt concerns have mostly evaporated as it has shored up its balance sheet and continues to benefit from the stay-at-home movement. However, recent inflation concerns and cost issues have put a damper on the stock in the near term as COVID variants continue to arise and supply disruptions persist.

ACPS = $71.90

The Industrials Sector

Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

J

$1,240

$12,400

$124,000

SPCE

$280

$2,800

$28,000

% Portfolio

5.7%

23. Jacobs Engineering (NYSE:J) is a legacy holding I have loved for years. A long-time no-debt company that makes super-smart acquisitions. It now has very low-debt and initiated a small dividend which it should be able to grow annually over the coming years like it did in January of 2022 by 10%. Its focus on carbon neutrality and diversity in its workforce makes it a prime target for the younger generation. Jacobs could also experience sustained tailwinds for years due to Biden’s infrastructure and spending bills.

ACPS = $68.41

24. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) looks ripe and tasty for another re-entrance at its current price. I love Virgin Galactic’s volatility as I have made good money in the past buying low and selling high. Commercial space flight for Virgin Galactic looks probable for the end of 2022, so I don’t mind getting in now as I hope to potentially build the position over 2022, especially if it stays around $10 a share.

ACPS = $13.21

The Materials Sector

Aim = 12% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

URA

$160

$1,600

$16,000

WEAT

$2,760

$27,600

$276,000

% Portfolio

11%

25. Global X Uranium ETF (URA) Think there will be a renewed surge in Uranium demand as Europe in particular transitions from Russian oil and gas to cleaner energy like nuclear. Small position for now easily sellable when I get tired of it.

ACPS = $25.11

26. Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) With the war between Russia and Ukraine in full swing, I feel the need to take a position in wheat futures as Russia and Ukraine account for ~25%-30% of the world’s wheat production. Planting should be occurring around now and for the next couple of months meaning that there might be a very significant shortage of wheat over the next year or two causing a potential spike in wheat futures if the rest of the world cannot adapt in time. It also doesn’t help that Russia seems to be targeting grain storage in Ukraine, but of course, this is wartime info. I put a nice large bet on wheat with plans to add to it in the coming months if prices continue to hover around my average cost with plans to sell parts of the trade on any rapid and significant moves up. A move of current share prices to ~$18 a share would lead me to sell around 50% of my holdings with a move to ~$25 a share causing me to sell ~75% or more of my holdings.

ACPS = $10.79

Sold: Sold Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) after taking some very nice profits. Switching over to more oil and wheat and uranium as my primary energy and materials commodities plays as I see spikes potentially happening in these industries in the coming year. Once these catalysts play out I will see if I want to buy back into the iron ore story.

The Energy Sector

Aim = 12% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

HAL

$570

$5,700

$57,000

USO

$2,620

$26,200

$262,000

% Portfolio

12.1%

27. Halliburton (HAL) is a U.S.-based oil service company that dominates services in the North American market. Small position with no real plans to expand even though it has been on fire to start 2022.

ACPS = $36.48

28. United States Oil Fund (USO) is a fund based on futures contracts for oil delivery. It is a higher volatility play on oil prices as sudden increases or decreases in oil prices will be immediately seen in this stock whereas traditional oil companies won’t see that great of move in their stock prices as it takes months for oil prices to impact quarterly earnings reports. Long USO here is a play on oil for whatever reason going up and over $120 a barrel in the short term or potentially even to shock levels like $150 or above. $200 a barrel levels are even possible if the world goes to war or major oil disruptions hit the market for whatever reason coinciding with a high demand summer driving season.

ACPS = $67.27

Sold: Petrobras (PBR) as I pretty much fully commit to oil futures contracts at this time as my main energy play. Maybe, by the time I’m willing to jump back into Petrobras, the current political games will be over and a more stable company and CEO will be in place.

The Utility Sector

Aim = 3% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

DUK $930 $9,300 $93,000

% Portfolio

3.5%

29. Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Love Duke’s market position and its attractive ~3.5% dividend. Great to own a stock like Duke that I can sell at the next drop of a hat especially with the market in turmoil for the foreseeable future. Always try to have a reserve ready for future opportunities.

ACPS = $115.00

The Real Estate Sector

Aim = 3% of my Stock holdings

Stock

$40K

$400K

$4M

AMT

$760

$7,600

$76,000

% Portfolio

2.8%

30. American Tower (AMT) is a premier U.S. cell phone tower company aggressively expanding globally across a few more continents. 5G evolution could be a lucrative tailwind for years to come. Can’t think of a reason to add another real estate play, so I just plan to keep adding to this holding over time.

ACPS = $111.38

Bonds (2% of my Stock holdings)

This asset class is currently satisfied by my mutual fund holdings.

My top 10 Holdings and Percentage of my Portfolio

Stock

Sector

% Portfolio

Bitcoin

Financials

10%

WEAT

Materials

7.8%

USO

Energy

7.4%

Arrowhead

Health Care

6.9%

Jacobs Engineering

Industrials

3.5%

Disney

Communications Services

3.4%

Duke

Utilities

2.6%

Roblox

Communication Services

2.6%

QUALCOMM

Info Tech

2.5%

AMD

Info Tech

2.4%

Total % of Portfolio

~49.1%

Stock Watch List:

Stocks I am looking to add to my portfolio or add shares to in the coming months potentially.

1. Commodities such as oil, wheat, and uranium.

Staying diversified across all sectors of the economy while making larger bets on your favorite stocks is a great way not only to potentially beat the market, but also have fun doing it. Stocks are one of the best ways to build wealth for retirement, and everyone should have the opportunity to share in the success of the best companies the world has to offer. Best of luck on another productive and lucrative year in 2022.