USD/CNH Price Analysis: Bulls pierce 200-week SMA to renew 18-month high

  • USD/CNH rises for third consecutive day to refresh the multi-day top, sidelined of late.
  • 200-week SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement level tests bulls amid overbought RSI.
  • Pullback remains elusive beyond April 2021 swing high.

USD/CNH prints a three-day uptrend to renew the 18-month high around 6.7475 during Monday’s Asian session.

In doing so, the offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) pair crosses the 200-week moving average amid the market’s rush for risk safety, as well as anxiety ahead of China’s trade numbers for April.

It should be noted, however, that the overbought RSI conditions and the crucial SMA level, around 6.7385 by the press time, challenge USD/CNH bulls.

Also acting as the key upside filter is the 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of the May 2020 to February 2022 downtrend, around 6.7515.

Meanwhile, a pullback move could aim for the 38.2% Fibo level, surrounding 6.6460, but remains elusive until breaking the April 2021 swing high towards the south, at 6.5875.

Overall, USD/CNH is likely to witness a pullback but the latest risk-aversion wave challenges the moves.

USD/CNH: Weekly chart

Trend: Pullback expected