TFI International Inc.'s (TSE:TFII) Stock Has Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Strong: Is The Market Wrong?

It is hard to get excited after looking at TFI International’s (TSE:TFII) recent performance, when its stock has declined 21% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. In this article, we decided to focus on TFI International’s ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company’s shareholders.

See our latest analysis for TFI International

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for TFI International is:

33% = US$745m ÷ US$2.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

The ‘return’ is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every CA$1 of its shareholder’s investments, the company generates a profit of CA$0.33.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we’ve learned that ROE is a measure of a company’s profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or “retains” for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don’t have the same features.

TFI International’s Earnings Growth And 33% ROE

Firstly, we acknowledge that TFI International has a significantly high ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 8.6% the company’s ROE is quite impressive. So, the substantial 35% net income growth seen by TFI International over the past five years isn’t overly surprising.

We then compared TFI International’s net income growth with the industry and we’re pleased to see that the company’s growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 14% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company’s expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if TFI International is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is TFI International Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

The three-year median payout ratio for TFI International is 25%, which is moderately low. The company is retaining the remaining 75%. So it seems that TFI International is reinvesting efficiently in a way that it sees impressive growth in its earnings (discussed above) and pays a dividend that’s well covered.

Besides, TFI International has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company’s future payout ratio is expected to drop to 15% over the next three years. However, TFI International’s future ROE is expected to decline to 24% despite the expected decline in its payout ratio. We infer that there could be other factors that could be steering the foreseen decline in the company’s ROE.

Conclusion

Overall, we are quite pleased with TFI International’s performance. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. Having said that, the company’s earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company’s fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst’s forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.